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Podcast: My Worst Investment Ever Podcast
Episode: ISMS 32: 5 Signs of Impending Recession
Description: Warning Sign #1 - Inverted yield curveIt’s not the first time the Fed has fought inflationFed has been fighting inflation with its main toolSteep rate hikes have historically preceded recessionsFed’s tool to fight inflation is raising the federal funds rateThis is the fastest and most aggressive rate-hike cycle by the Fed since the 1980sAfter the 0.25%-hike in Feb 2023, the current rate-hike cycle became the most aggressive since the 1980sThe Fed has hiked rates by 5.25% in the current cycleThis has resulted in short-term rates becoming higher than long-term (yield-cure inversion)Yield-curve inversion signals 4Q23 US recessionAll recessions in t...