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Podcast: HBR On Strategy
Episode: How to Get Forecasting Right
Description: Do you know the difference between accurate forecasting and effective forecasting?
Technology forecaster Paul Saffo says accurate forecasting is nearly impossible to do. But if you aim for effective forecasting, he notes, then at least you’re considering the full range of reasonable possibilities for the future, rather than jumping to one conclusion and preparing only for that outcome. “If you head straight towards accurate forecasting, you may end up in a much worse situation by overlooking things that eventually come to pass,” Saffo argues.
In this episode, he shares his six rules for effective foreca...