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Podcast: PRay TeLL, Dr. Hash
Episode: 284 Election Forecasting
Description: Predicting the future is fraught with downside, just ask anybody in Vegas. People rely on statistics as a way to legitimize their fortune-telling, and statistics do work in many situations, which has made them a tool of the exploiters: the people who leverage the credibility of statistics for their own self-interests. For example, there's electioneering forecasting; the tendency for news outlets to minimize the gap between candidates at the top of the ticket, particularly the presidency. It's in nobody's interest to report honestly on a presidential election if it's a lock for one side: for example, if a Democrat...