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Podcast: Notes on the Week Ahead
Episode: A Turning Point for the Economy
Description: In investing, as in life, it is important to learn from the past, appreciate the present and plan for the future. This is particularly true at turning points.
In the early weeks of the New Year, we do appear to be at an economic turning point. Fourth-quarter GDP and consumption deflator data, due out this week, may give the impression of continued solid growth with still strong year-over-year inflation. However, a more real-time assessment of the economy suggests a significant cooling in both, with monetary and fiscal tightening contributing to the slowdown. That being said, it should be r...