Notes on the Week Ahead
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The Receding Tariff Tide
10 mins; March 30, 2026
The Investment Implications of Shrinking the Fed’s Balance Sheet
13 mins; March 24, 2026
How Will It End?
10 mins; March 16, 2026
An Updated Outlook for the U.S. Economy
9 mins; March 09, 2026
The Investment Implications of the Tariff Decision
10 mins; February 23, 2026
Detangling Solution for the Economic Outlook
10 mins; February 17, 2026
Real Economy Challenges
11 mins; February 09, 2026
The Federal Reserve – New Leadership, Same Landscape
8 mins; February 02, 2026
The Direction of the Fed
9 mins; January 26, 2026
International Equities: Looking Beneath the Currency Icing
10 mins; January 20, 2026
A Baseline Forecast for 2026
11 mins; January 05, 2026
Why Stocks are Outperforming the Economy
11 mins; December 15, 2025
Forecasting the Fed’s Forecasts
11 mins; December 08, 2025
The Outlook for Autos
10 mins; December 01, 2025
The Health of the Consumer
11 mins; November 24, 2025
Why a 1:13 expansion feels like a 1:20 recession
11 mins; November 17, 2025
The Importance of Navigation in the Dark
11 mins; November 03, 2025
Oil, Inflation and the Fed: The Slide and the Rollercoaster
9 mins; October 27, 2025
Going Broke Slowly: The Investment Implications of Still-Rising Federal Debt
8 mins; October 13, 2025
The Investment Implications of the Government Shutdown
8 mins; October 06, 2025
Checking the Foundations of a Roaring Bull Market
11 mins; September 22, 2025
Truth or Consequences: The Fed’s Next Move
7 mins; September 15, 2025
Rate Rescue Reality Check
9 mins; September 08, 2025
Back from the Beach: Reviewing the Investment Landscape
13 mins; September 02, 2025
The Investment Implications of the Refund Surge
10 mins; August 25, 2025
Why Money Doesn’t Talk Any More
10 mins; August 18, 2025
The Inflation Outlook
11 mins; August 11, 2025
The Investment Implications of Weaker Labor Supply
10 mins; August 04, 2025
The Fed Decisions
10 mins; July 28, 2025
Underreacting and then Overreacting to Policy Shocks
10 mins; July 14, 2025
The Investment Implications of a Falling Dollar
9 mins; July 07, 2025
OBBBA and a Cold, Hot, Cold Forecast
9 mins; June 30, 2025
Tariffs and Inflation
12 mins; June 23, 2025
Economic Sogginess and the Market Party
10 mins; June 09, 2025
The Macro Jigsaw
12 mins; June 02, 2025
Policy and the Investment Landscape: An Update
13 mins; May 19, 2025
A Softer Sort of Slowdown
11 mins; May 05, 2025
Tracking the Economic Slowdown
9 mins; April 28, 2025
Recession Risks, Resilience and American Exceptionalism
10 mins; April 21, 2025
Tariff Turmoil and Investment Strategy
11 mins; April 07, 2025
Fiscal Fudge
7 mins; March 24, 2025
The Wait and See Economy
12 mins; March 17, 2025
The Trouble with Tariffs
5 mins; March 03, 2025
The Implications of Slowing Population Growth
8 mins; February 24, 2025
The Growth Drag from Policy Uncertainty
12 mins; February 18, 2025
Europe: The Slow and Steady Train
11 mins; February 10, 2025
The Investment Implications of the Trade War
6 mins; February 03, 2025
White House Actions, Fed Reactions and Investing
10 mins; January 27, 2025
The Big Picture on Debt, Deficits and Interest Rates
12 mins; January 21, 2025
Interest Rates, Inflation and the Uncertainty Tax
12 mins; January 13, 2025
Stability and Extremes
10 mins; January 06, 2025
Reading Between the Lines (On the Direction of Monetary Policy)
7 mins; December 16, 2024
Initial Conditions
11 mins; December 09, 2024
Irish Lessons
8 mins; December 02, 2024
Policy Changes and the Macro Outlook
11 mins; November 18, 2024
The Investment Implications of the Republican Sweep
12 mins; November 11, 2024
Finding Balance in a Broadening Expansion
7 mins; October 28, 2024
The Deficit, the Election and Interest Rates
11 mins; October 14, 2024
Four Banks and the Dollar
11 mins; October 08, 2024
The Investment Implications of the Wealth Surge
8 mins; September 30, 2024
The Investment Implications of a $769,900,000,000 Mistake
6 mins; September 23, 2024
Previewing the Fed: Easy Does It
7 mins; September 16, 2024
The Jobs Mosaic
12 mins; September 09, 2024
Demographics, Debt, the Dollar and Apocalyptic Assets
13 mins; September 03, 2024
Jackson Hole and the Speed of Fed Easing
7 mins; August 19, 2024
The Outlook for Housing in a Macro Game of Inches
10 mins; August 12, 2024
The Slowdown Scenario
10 mins; August 05, 2024
Concentration Risk as the Fed gets Ready to Cut
8 mins; July 29, 2024
Is 4.1% Unemployment a Recession Warning?
9 mins; July 08, 2024
Expansion on Broadway
7 mins; June 24, 2024
Risks and Exposure
10 mins; June 17, 2024
The Wide and Foggy Road
8 mins; June 10, 2024
The Normalization of an Abnormal Job Market
9 mins; June 03, 2024
The Causes and Consequences of Gloom and Doom
9 mins; May 28, 2024
The Investment Implications of the Federal Debt: An Update
10 mins; May 13, 2024
Commercial Real Estate: Macro Risk or Investment Opportunity?
9 mins; May 06, 2024
The Right Track
10 mins; April 29, 2024
The Causes and Consequences of More Volatile Bonds
10 mins; April 22, 2024
The Dollar Dynasty
9 mins; April 15, 2024
The Right Time to Cut Rates
9 mins; April 08, 2024
Wage War
11 mins; March 25, 2024
Dot-Plot Danger and QT Limits
12 mins; March 18, 2024
From Business Cycle to Stretched-Out Expansion
10 mins; March 11, 2024
Japanese Lessons
12 mins; March 04, 2024
The Investment Implications of the Migration Surge
9 mins; February 26, 2024
The Pressures of a Full Employment Economy
12 mins; February 20, 2024
Will Job Market Strength Delay the Inflation Slide?
10 mins; February 05, 2024
Too Much Growth for Early Easing
9 mins; January 29, 2024
A Thaw in Sentiment
6 mins; January 22, 2024
Will Rising Federal Debt Force Rates Higher?
8 mins; January 16, 2024
The Inflation Slide Looks Set to Continue
9 mins; January 10, 2024
Balance Sheets and Resolutions
8 mins; January 02, 2024
The Investment Climate
10 mins; December 12, 2023
Winter Driving: Can the Economy Keep Growing into 2025?
9 mins; December 05, 2023
The Remarkable Resilience of Corporate Margins
10 mins; November 27, 2023
Falling Tensions in a Cooling Economy
7 mins; November 13, 2023
Tracking the Inflation Slide
11 mins; November 06, 2023
Slowdown Delayed; Cooldown Ahead of Schedule
9 mins; October 30, 2023
The Addicted Consumer
8 mins; October 23, 2023
Investing in World of Increasing Complexity
7 mins; October 10, 2023