Notes on the Week Ahead
Podcast image
The Investment Implications of a Rising Federal Deficit
10 mins; September 25, 2023
The View from the Top of Tightening Mountain
11 mins; September 18, 2023
Worrying about Oil
10 mins; September 11, 2023
Unemployment and Wage Inflation
11 mins; September 05, 2023
Letter from Wyoming
7 mins; August 21, 2023
Real Rates in the Long Run
13 mins; August 14, 2023
Bull Market Investing
9 mins; August 09, 2023
The Soft Landing Scenario
9 mins; July 31, 2023
The Inflation Perfectionists
10 mins; July 24, 2023
The Sin of Wages: A Last, Bad Excuse for Monetary Tightening
9 mins; July 10, 2023
The Investment Implications of Consumer Gloom
9 mins; July 05, 2023
Waiting for a Negative
9 mins; June 27, 2023
The Recession Questions: Yes, No, When and How Bad?
13 mins; June 20, 2023
Cooler Inflation and Slower Growth should Convert a Fed Skip into a Fed Pause
8 mins; June 12, 2023
The Steady Normalization of the U.S. Labor Market
12 mins; May 30, 2023
Sizing up the angles on Fed policy
10 mins; May 22, 2023
Slow-Motion Slowdown
8 mins; May 15, 2023
Debt-Ceiling Cliff Dancing
13 mins; May 01, 2023
When Money Stops Talking
13 mins; April 24, 2023
The Road Back to 2% Inflation
8 mins; April 17, 2023
The Real Threat to Dollar Dominance
8 mins; April 10, 2023
The Recessionary Price of a Faster Decline in Inflation
10 mins; March 28, 2023
The Economic Impact of Banking Turmoil
10 mins; March 20, 2023
The Investment Implications of a Demographic Bounce
9 mins; March 06, 2023
Investing Beyond The Profit Squeeze
8 mins; February 27, 2023
A Seasonal Surge (and its Implications for Jobs, Growth, Inflation and Rates)
7 mins; February 22, 2023
The Lurking Slowdown
11 mins; February 06, 2023
A Turning Point for the Economy
10 mins; January 23, 2023
Debt-Ceiling Danger
10 mins; January 17, 2023
Resolution and Confidence
8 mins; January 03, 2023
The Challenged Consumer
9 mins; December 19, 2022
The Investment Implications of the Oil Slide
8 mins; December 12, 2022
Redhotnot – The Investment Implications of the Job Market Mosaic
10 mins; December 05, 2022
The Investment Implications of the Housing Slump
7 mins; November 22, 2022
Recession Risks: Standing on the Edge of a Swamp
10 mins; November 15, 2022
The Market-Moving Menu of Data and Events
11 mins; October 31, 2022
Lifting the Fog of Uncertainty on Growth, Inflation, Politics and Rates
10 mins; October 24, 2022
The Monetary Implications of Fiscal Drag
9 mins; October 17, 2022
The Slope of the Inflation Slide
7 mins; October 10, 2022
The Recession that Didn’t Bark
9 mins; October 03, 2022
The Scales of Fundamentals and Price
7 mins; September 26, 2022
Why the Fed should worry less about sticky inflation (but probably won’t)
12 mins; September 20, 2022
Why the Fed should worry less about sticky inflation (but probably won’t)
12 mins; September 20, 2022
Job Openings, Recession Risks and Prospects for a Fed Reversal
8 mins; September 06, 2022
The Investment Implications of Jackson Hole
6 mins; August 31, 2022
A Line in the Sand on Inflation
10 mins; August 22, 2022
The Global Inflation War
14 mins; August 16, 2022
The Inflation Cold Front
8 mins; August 08, 2022
The Inflation Cold Front
8 mins; August 08, 2022
The Inflation Cold Front
8 mins; August 08, 2022
Twists and Turns on the Road to a Better Investment Environment
10 mins; August 02, 2022
From Allegro to Adagio: Growth, Inflation and the Fed
10 mins; July 26, 2022
The Lag in the Drag
11 mins; July 11, 2022
The Quiet Machinery of Repair
10 mins; July 05, 2022
The Rollover Race between Growth and Inflation
8 mins; June 28, 2022
Recession Risks and Investment Implications
11 mins; June 22, 2022
The Keeping Cool Heads amidst Hot Inflation
8 mins; June 15, 2022
The Investment Implications of Food and Energy Inflation
9 mins; June 06, 2022
Growth? Inflation? Recession? Principles!
10 mins; June 01, 2022
The Investment Implications of a Falling Budget Deficit
11 mins; May 16, 2022
Slowing Growth and the Potential for an Extended Soft Landing
8 mins; May 10, 2022
The Dollar in a World of Worries
7 mins; May 02, 2022
Killing it Softly: How the Fed should Fight Inflation
10 mins; April 25, 2022
The Economy and Markets after a First-Quarter Roller Coaster
8 mins; April 12, 2022
Where have all the workers gone?
7 mins; April 05, 2022
Small Paddle, Big Rapids: What the Economy Could Do to the Fed
8 mins; March 22, 2022
Getting Going on Monetary Tightening
9 mins; March 14, 2022
Ukraine and the U.S. Economy
7 mins; March 07, 2022
The Financial Backdrop as Ukraine Waits and Worries
9 mins; February 22, 2022
Ukraine: The Investment Implications of a Loser’s Game
7 mins; February 14, 2022
Interest Rates: How High and How Fast?
10 mins; February 07, 2022
Feddle
9 mins; January 31, 2022
Housing and the Fed
8 mins; January 24, 2022
The Recession Scenario
11 mins; January 18, 2022
Shifting Fundamentals Still Point to Higher Rates
10 mins; January 10, 2022
Pumping the Brakes on the U.S. Economy
9 mins; January 03, 2022
The Fed turns more hawkish…for now
9 mins; December 13, 2021
The Great Worker Shortage
10 mins; December 06, 2021
The Investment Implications of Omicron
6 mins; November 29, 2021
More Clarity and Less Stimulus from Washington
6 mins; November 22, 2021
Why Inflation still looks mostly Transitory
11 mins; November 15, 2021
Getting Back on the Recovery Track
10 mins; November 08, 2021
The Pandemic and Financial Waves
14 mins; November 01, 2021
The Stagflation Scare
6 mins; October 18, 2021
Facing Reality on Growth and Inflation
7 mins; October 11, 2021
The American Consumer: Still Ready to Drive the Recovery
8 mins; September 27, 2021
Haircuts and Roulette Wheels: Are we “Due” for a Correction?
8 mins; September 20, 2021
Washington games and their consequences for risks, taxes, stimulus and investing
10 mins; September 13, 2021
Speedbumps on the Road to Recovery
11 mins; September 07, 2021
Monetary and Fiscal Timetables
7 mins; August 30, 2021
The Profits Wave
7 mins; August 23, 2021
The Investment Implications of a Mutating Economy
8 mins; August 09, 2021
New Palette Same Picture
9 mins; August 02, 2021
The Variants and the Vaccines
7 mins; July 19, 2021
Speeding More Slowly
6 mins; July 12, 2021
After the Storm
9 mins; July 06, 2021
The Season of Supercharged Demand
8 mins; June 28, 2021
Why the Bond Market is Ignoring Inflation
9 mins; June 14, 2021
The Fed’s Forecasts
9 mins; June 07, 2021
The Evolving Expansion
9 mins; June 01, 2021