Notes on the Week Ahead
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U.S. Housing - Booming not Bubbling
7 mins; May 25, 2021
Midterm Report Card
11 mins; May 17, 2021
The Jobs Mosaic and the Outlook for Interest Rates
9 mins; May 10, 2021
The Washington Menu
9 mins; April 26, 2021
Commodities and the Risk of Inflation
8 mins; April 19, 2021
Inflation, Taxes and the Need for Mindful Investing
9 mins; April 12, 2021
Double-Dose
9 mins; April 05, 2021
The Calm before the Surge
9 mins; March 29, 2021
Runway for the Rotation
11 mins; March 23, 2021
Time for a Fed Change of Tune
6 mins; March 15, 2021
Boil then Simmer
10 mins; March 08, 2021
Interest Rates and Equities in a Strengthening Economy
8 mins; March 01, 2021
Interest Rates in an Early Spring
7 mins; February 22, 2021
Investing With a Lead
10 mins; February 16, 2021
A New Year for China
9 mins; February 08, 2021
How is the vaccine rollout progressing?
4 mins; February 03, 2021
The Race to Full Employment
8 mins; February 01, 2021
The Pandemic Crisis and the Policy Reaction
7 mins; January 26, 2021
The Investment Implications of Biden Rescue Plan
13 mins; January 19, 2021
The Price of Partisanship
8 mins; January 04, 2021
The Investment Implications of the Stimulus Deal
7 mins; December 21, 2020
What the Fed Can’t Fix
9 mins; December 14, 2020
The Need for Support more than Stimulus
8 mins; December 07, 2020
The Investment Implications of a Falling Dollar
7 mins; December 01, 2020
The Winter Wave and the 2021 Rebound
8 mins; November 23, 2020
A Long-Term Perspective on Investing
9 mins; November 16, 2020
Mapping out the road ahead
8 mins; November 10, 2020
Recovery Realities
8 mins; October 26, 2020
Reversing the Population Pause
8 mins; October 19, 2020
The Fed’s Timetable
10 mins; October 12, 2020
The Investment Implications of a Contested Election
10 mins; September 28, 2020
The Problem with MMT
13 mins; September 21, 2020
The Pandemic Marathon
9 mins; September 08, 2020
An Exuberant Rally in an Incomplete Recovery
8 mins; August 31, 2020
Average-Inflation Targeting in a Washington without Hawks
7 mins; August 24, 2020
The Human Implications of the Washington Stalemate
10 mins; August 17, 2020
The Investment Implications of the Coronavirus Debt Surge
10 mins; August 10, 2020
The View from the Base of Recovery Mountain
9 mins; August 03, 2020
An Antidote to Risk
10 mins; July 28, 2020
The Backroads of Economic Recovery
9 mins; July 06, 2020
The Investment Implications of a Rolling-Wave Pandemic
8 mins; June 29, 2020
Risks to the Market
17 mins; June 15, 2020
The Patchwork Quilt
7 mins; June 01, 2020
Patterns of Recession
14 mins; May 26, 2020
Lessons from East Asia
7 mins; May 05, 2020
Inflation risks in the wake of the pandemic
10 mins; April 27, 2020
The Road to Recovery
12 mins; April 20, 2020
Why the stock market isn't more worried
8 mins; April 13, 2020
The Investment implications of the CARES act
13 mins; March 30, 2020
Holding an economy in suspended animation
7 mins; March 23, 2020
The Investment Implications of COVID-19 ; an update
11 mins; March 16, 2020
The year of the virus
10 mins; March 02, 2020
When Markets drift apart
8 mins; February 18, 2020
Adjusting strategy for slower growth
8 mins; February 10, 2020
Virus
5 mins; February 03, 2020
Getting to 21 without going bust
6 mins; January 21, 2020
Stable Growth, Fading Risks and Rising Valuations
8 mins; January 13, 2020
Understanding Underreaction
7 mins; January 06, 2020
Hot and Cold Wars
8 mins; December 30, 2019
A Turning Point in Trade Turmoil
8 mins; December 16, 2019
Holding pattern
5 mins; December 10, 2019
Extra Toothpaste in the Tube: The Remarkable Elasticity of U.S. Labor Supply
8 mins; December 02, 2019
Giving Thanks and Planning Ahead
6 mins; November 25, 2019
Fiscal Truth and Investment Consequences
8 mins; November 18, 2019
The Inflation Corridor
9 mins; November 11, 2019
A Sudden Change in Seasons: Investing in a Slower-Growing Economy
7 mins; November 04, 2019
Jigsaw
8 mins; October 29, 2019
The Problem with Profits
7 mins; October 21, 2019
Winning Ugly
5 mins; October 14, 2019
Close Calls
7 mins; October 07, 2019
2020 Vision and Political Distortions
6 mins; October 01, 2019
Why the Fed shouldn’t cut rates on Wednesday (but probably will)
8 mins; September 16, 2019
Recession or Resilience: The Hiring Tiebreaker
8 mins; September 09, 2019
Filling in the Demographic Pothole
8 mins; August 26, 2019
The Message from the Yield Curve
8 mins; August 19, 2019
Investing for the Middle Run
8 mins; August 12, 2019
The Investment Challenge from Washington Policies
7 mins; August 05, 2019
New Brush Strokes for the Big Picture
7 mins; July 29, 2019
Summer Sequels
6 mins; July 22, 2019
The Investment Implications of Excessive Stimulus
6 mins; July 15, 2019
Chairman Powell’s Message
7 mins; July 08, 2019
Can the Fed stop at just two rate cuts?
7 mins; July 01, 2019
Schrodinger’s Market
6 mins; June 24, 2019
The Fed Shows its Hand
7 mins; June 17, 2019
Nice Levels – Shame about the Pace
8 mins; June 10, 2019
Investing for a Middle-Case Scenario
6 mins; June 03, 2019
The Slowdown is Coming -Take Two
7 mins; May 28, 2019
Adjusting to Demographic Reality
7 mins; May 20, 2019
Tariffs and the Lessons of History
8 mins; May 12, 2019
The hierarchy of monetary mistakes
7 mins; May 05, 2019
Investment implications of 'All systems go'
9 mins; April 28, 2019
Slowdown is coming
8 mins; April 22, 2019
Federal credit card day
6 mins; April 14, 2019
Down the middle of a narrowing road
6 mins; April 07, 2019
Water stops
8 mins; March 31, 2019
Framing the Fed
9 mins; March 24, 2019
Delaying deadlines
7 mins; March 17, 2019
Wheels down for soft landing
6 mins; March 10, 2019
Why deficits matter - The problem with one more steak
10 mins; March 03, 2019
The extra sixpence
7 mins; February 24, 2019