Want to create an interactive transcript for this episode?
Podcast: Notes on the Week Ahead
Episode: The Pressures of a Full Employment Economy
Description: I spent most of last week fighting with a model.
Before anyone starts googling “Nerdy Economist in Fashion Week Brawl”, I should clarify. I was fighting with a macroeconomic model that insisted on telling me something I didn’t believe. To be precise, it was projecting that, given the recent and projected pace of U.S. economic growth, the unemployment rate would slide to 3.0% by the end of 2025.
This I don’t believe for reasons I’ll explain. But the changes in assumptions necessary to produce a more reasonable answer can tell us a lot about the likel...